By Dr. Alfie Meek, Director of the Center for Economic Development Research at the Georgia Tech Enterprise Innovation Institute
It was a pleasure to join Partnership Gwinnett and Gateway85 Community Improvement District for this year’s Economic Outlook. With record attendance and the addition of a fireside chat featuring local leaders, the event continues to grow in both scale and impact.
During my presentation in March, I focused on several key forces shaping the national economy — including inflation, interest rates, the labor market, housing and manufacturing. Those themes remain central to my outlook, but as expected, some perspectives have already evolved.
If I were giving the presentation today, my expectations around interest rates would be different.
In early March, I anticipated approximately 100 basis points of rate cuts through the remainder of 2026, particularly as leadership at the Federal Reserve transitions. I no longer expect that to be the case. Inflation has proven more persistent than I anticipated — driven in part by global factors — and under those conditions, it becomes difficult for the Fed to justify cutting rates. At this point, I believe it is more likely we see no cuts, and I would not rule out the possibility of a rate hike before a cut.
I would also modestly revise my GDP outlook downward from where it stood in March. While the economy continues to grow, the pace of that growth may be slightly slower than previously expected.
Beyond those adjustments, much of my original outlook remains intact.
I continue to expect a recovery in manufacturing, supported by onshoring and domestic investment trends. Inflation is still likely to move higher, particularly in areas such as health care and energy. The labor market is expected to weaken, while consumer spending — which showed strength early in the year — may taper as 2026 progresses. Housing construction is also likely to remain slow, as inventory levels remain elevated and mortgage rates continue to move in an unfavorable direction.
These were all themes discussed during the Economic Outlook and remain key factors to watch in the months ahead.
One of the most valuable aspects of this year’s event was the addition of local perspectives through the fireside chat. While my role is to provide a national economic lens, those insights help ground the data in what businesses and communities are experiencing in real time. As always, an economic outlook is a point-in-time assessment. Conditions will continue to shift, and forecasts should be evaluated accordingly. I look forward to returning next year to assess how these projections compare to where the economy ultimately lands.